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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."