🔗 Share this article

It was eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a symptom or a cause for the side's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. When the in-form star drilled in his second to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have piled up.

As per the data, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – however right now the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with two precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.

His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from a wide position. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.