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Industry experts have voiced considerable skepticism regarding recent claims that US large firms will quickly invest vast sums of dollars to fix the country's dilapidated oil infrastructure.

The Need for Solid Guarantees

Without an “iron-clad guarantee” of full reimbursement from the Washington, specialists predict multinational oil companies to act with extreme caution.

“It is too early to discuss any potential investments,” a spokesperson commented recently.

The ambitious schedule of under a year and a half has been publicly suggested. However, industry projections paint a different picture.

A More Realistic Outlook

“It’s probably going to take multiple years for any kind of output increase,” noted one energy analyst.

The analysis indicates operators would likely spend:

• Year one: Securing new operating agreements.
• Following phase: Investing in overhaul of equipment.
• Final phase: Reaching a position to boost yield.

The result could be an increase of around 500,000 barrels per day perhaps by the end of the decade.

Appetite Compared to Appetite for Investment

There is a important separation between companies' curiosity and their willingness to spend substantially.

“I think their curiosity is an eight, on a scale of ten. However, their appetite is a much lower, because there is a lack of certainty yet.”

Veteran observers in the country share this view. The thinking is that companies will publicly talk up the opportunity while actually moving with deliberate slowness.

The Colossal Price Tag

The monetary investment would be enormous. Independent analysis suggest that adding between half a million and a million barrels per day would require over $10 billion in investment over two to three years.

Yet, returning output to previous levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years.

The Unanswered Issue of Federal Guarantees

The idea of energy companies being compensated by the federal government has been repeatedly raised. However, specific plans on this proposal have not yet been announced.

The absence of a solid plan is the key factor for the industry's hesitation. Operators seek protection against nationalization and the risk that a different administration could renege on any promise.

“They must be insured against nationalization, that we’ve experienced in Venezuela previously.”

In summary, while political promises runs strong, the financial risks suggest a journey of extreme caution for potential large-scale venture in the country's oil sector.